Insight: At Suu Kyi's rallies, signs of a new Myanmar
By Jason Szep | Reuters – 9 hrs ago

DAWEI, Myanmar (Reuters) - Shortly after her aging aircraft rattled its way off the runway and into the skies of southern Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi crossed the aisle to where three orange-robed Buddhist monks were seated in the first row.

She knelt down and bowed her head, as passengers watched aboard a suddenly hushed plane. Media were not alerted. There were no clicking cameras.

"That's a wonderful moment," the lone Western diplomat on the plane said quietly.

Her display of obeisance and humility, less than an hour after ecstatic crowds feted her like a rock-star in the southern city of Dawei, revealed a side few have seen.

This more deferential demeanor of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate may well help sustain the most sweeping reforms in the former British colony since a 1962 military coup when it was known as Burma.

DEMONISED AS WESTERNISED

While she is widely admired at home, figures in her own movement have criticized her as too dogmatic, inflexible or arrogant - accusations amplified by state media under the former military junta which handed power to a nominally civilian parliament in March.

The ruling generals often demonized her as Westernized, out of touch with Myanmar. It contrasts with her international image as an enduring symbol of democracy, locked away 15 of the past 22 years for her beliefs until freed from house arrest in November, 2010.

Her steadfast support of Western economic sanctions over the years, however, divided the dissident community. Some felt they hurt the general public and allowed the junta and its cronies to carve up Myanmar's resources and other assets for themselves. Suu Kyi countered they were crucial to force the generals to produce sincere reforms, echoing U.S. and European views.

But as Myanmar changes, so too, is she. At 66, many see her now as more politically astute, more realistic.

"She wasn't always humble, she wasn't always flexible. But to succeed now, she needs to be flexible, and she is starting to show that," said one veteran Burmese journalist.

Her genuflection in the plane was emblematic of her position as opposition leader as well: monks have been at the forefront of the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, and Suu Kyi had just finished speeches calling for changes to the army-drafted constitution at the heart of Myanmar's power structure.

Later, speaking with Reuters aboard the 1970s-era Myanma Airways aircraft, she ticked off her top priorities, including introducing the rule of law and ending several ethnic insurgencies. But above all, she wants to amend the 2008 constitution ensuring the military's strong influence over the resource-rich country of nearly 60 million people.

"That's our election platform," she said.

UNLIKELY LEADER

Her last campaign, ahead of the 1990 elections, awoke similar passions and ended with troops surrounding her lakeside villa, locking her under house arrest.

In the tumult before the election, thousands of pro-democracy protesters were killed, and the 43-year-old Suu Kyi emerged as an unlikely leader. She had a home in Oxford, England, a British husband and two sons. But as the daughter of assassinated independence hero Aung San, considered by many as the nation's founding father, she was urged to speak up.
Just months after returning to Yangon to care for her ailing mother in 1988, she shot to prominence.

"I have never really wanted to get involved in politics but the people of Burma had a very high regard for my father ... so obviously I felt a sense of responsibility," she told Reuters in an August, 1988, interview. "After the August demonstrations and the killings, I felt it would be too cowardly of me to sit tight in my house and pretend that nothing was happening."
In less than a year, she was drawing tens of thousands of supporters at rallies, becoming a symbol of democracy. After her arrest, the junta tightened its grip.

STAR POWER

Two decades later, her star power is undimmed.

In Dawei on Sunday, thousands of ecstatic supporters turned out for a glimpse of her, lining dusty streets, cheering and waving little red-and-white flags, the colors of her opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party. Some wore shirts with her image. Many chanted "long live mother Suu."

At each stop, she roused them into wild cheers.

After her rallies in Dawei, state media reminded candidates that formal campaigning had yet to begin for the 48 available seats in the 1,158-seat legislature.

Suu Kyi's speeches on Tuesday in rural Myaing township toed that line. She did not mention the election or even her party, speaking instead about a British development project.

While in 1989 she defied authorities by holding illegal rallies and ended up under house arrest, Suu Kyi now seems less willing to provoke authorities into a backlash that could undermine the nascent reforms.

But her appearances in Dawei had the unmistakable feel of a campaign. She spoke on stages over loudspeakers in four villages, pressing her demand for changing the constitution whose clauses reserve a quarter of parliament's seats for the military, and warning that any government that lies to the people should be removed.

"There are certain laws which are obstacles to freedom of the people, and we will try to abolish these laws within the framework of the parliament," she said at one rally. "Only when democracy prevails will the people's power rule."

LIVELY PARLIAMENT DEBATE

While little has changed physically on Myanmar's rutted streets, the government has seen a dramatic transformation the past six months. Last August, President Thein Sein, a former junta leader, stunned lawmakers in the capital Naypyitaw, urging them to pursue reforms, adopt good governance and do the unthinkable: freely voice opinions.

Since then, hundreds of political prisoners have been freed. The government regularly engages with Suu Kyi. Parliament, dismissed as a rubber-stamping sham when it opened a year ago, began a third session last week with lively debate on a reform program that could lead the West to start lifting sanctions by mid-year.

Anti-corruption legislation is being drafted, along with bills ending the secrecy surrounding the national budget. A law is in the works that would overhaul a village administration system that has stacked election odds in favor of the dominant military-backed party. U.S. President Barack Obama has hailed Myanmar's "flickers of progress."

"We're finally moving in the right direction," said Sai Saung Si, 65, a lawmaker from northern Shan State and vice-chairman of the Shan Nationalities Development Party, a major ethnic party that won 18 seats in the lower house in 2010.

Each Sunday, he holds meetings in his home for villagers to raise issues. At first, people were afraid to speak up. But that's changing, he said. "When I go back to my town and when there are problems, because of my status as a member of parliament, what I say takes effect. It is working," he said.

He takes the most difficult problems directly to the relevant ministries. If they try to ignore him, he plays back the president's words. "I tell them the president wants good governance. They generally don't argue with that."

CLOUD OF REPRESSION LIFTING

During Suu Kyi's swing through Dawei, children in white and green school uniforms lined the streets waving and cheering. Under the junta, they would have been strictly barred from opposition events.

The usual retinue of undercover police did not trail her every move as they did on a July 5 visit to Bagan, north of Yangon, where some feared a reprise of the 2003 bloody attack on her motorcade in which 70 supporters were killed.

In Yangon this week, journalists, government officials and media executives both local and foreign met in a conference room to discuss changes to laws that for a half-century meant that every song, book, cartoon, news story and planned piece of art would require approval by teams of censors rooting out political messages and criticisms of Myanmar's authoritarian system.

"Now we have a chance to change our policy," U Than Htay, Minister of Energy, told Reuters in an interview in Naypyitaw. "Once we took office, we have changed many things to develop our nation than previously." His first policy shift was to ban the export of natural gas from new fields in Myanmar, and use those resources to speed up development of local industry.

STRONGMAN RETIRED?

A turning point for Suu Kyi came on August 19 when she and President Thein Sein met one-on-one in Naypyitaw. The president has since repeatedly urged parliament to pursue reforms, while Suu Kyi has voiced support for the government.

What the two discussed has not been made public. Some people here think Thein Sein may have reassured Suu Kyi of not just the government's support but also of the military's. More importantly, they speculate, Thein Sein conveyed another, crucial message: that Myanmar's former strongman, retired Senior General Than Shwe, had given his blessing to the reforms.

That is not entirely clear. But diplomats say it would allow him to retire in peace rather than face the possibility of an Arab Spring-style popular revolt.

The 78-year-old military strategist remains mostly out of public view and seldom speaks with outsiders. Dissidents paint him as a paranoid despot driven by a mixture of greed, fear and superstition. But the general who spent much of his military career as an expert in psychological warfare is also considered a brilliant tactician and is thought to remain influential.

Some skeptics in the democracy movement say Suu Kyi is working too closely with a government stacked with the same former generals who persecuted dissidents, fearing she is being exploited to convince the West to lift sanctions.

"If it will serve the country, let them exploit me, let them take advantage of me," Suu Kyi said in response to such criticism last year.

PRESIDENT ONE DAY

The breathtaking pace of reforms does pose plenty of challenges for her.

Her party lacks experience in administration and organizing campaigns, but that also may be changing. In the Dawei region, t-shirts with her image or the party's name were distributed free of charge before her arrival in a sign of efficiency.

Another question is how much influence she can wield over the year-old parliament. But lawmakers interviewed by Reuters said it could be formidable.

"When she comes to the parliament, if she raises one issue, and this issue is very beneficial to the country, then who will dare go against it?" said Sai Saung Si of the Shan Nationalities Development Party.

Still, it will take time before many Burmese no longer fear their government - something Suu Kyi directly addressed.

"You must be able to go to bed without having to worry who will come and knock on your door at night, and you must be able to wake up with this in your mind," she told one rally at Dawei.

But she was also careful not to raise expectations too high, telling party leaders not to "give impossible pledges....When you persuade someone to vote for you, it should be done spiritually."

Managing expectations could her most daunting challenge. If she wins the April 1 by-elections, her supporters expect her to accelerate the reform process and possibly transform parliament. And many have even higher hopes.

"As to whether we should feel optimistic about the changes happening in Myanmar, the key person is Aung San Suu Kyi," said Maung Tin Thit, an environmental activist and former political prisoner in Mandalay. "She is the person who will decide whether we should be optimistic. She will be president one day."
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Myanmar says will put stability ahead of economy - report
Reuters – 9 hours ago

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Myanmar President Thein Sein said his government was committed to political reform and would put the stability of the country ahead of economic development, Singapore's Straits Times newspaper reported on Tuesday.

The president, in Singapore for a three-day official visit that began on Sunday, has overseen dramatic reforms over the past few months, including the freeing of hundreds of political prisoners, a loosening of media controls and engagement with Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the fight for democracy.

The government has also agreed to ceasefires with several ethnic rebel groups in the past three months and is holding talks with others, some of which have been fighting for autonomy for decades.

"The future of Myanmar lies in peace and stability, while economic development is a secondary priority for the country," Thein Sein said in an interview with the newspaper.

"We are already on the chosen path to democracy and we will continue. We are nurturing the system to have a flourishing democracy in the country," he said.

Thein Sein was part of the junta that stepped aside when a nominally civilian government took office last March. As the country has opened up to the outside world, ministers have started speaking more to the media.

The president indicated interest in developing trade in foreign currencies and stocks as part of economic reforms.

"At the moment we do not have the skills and expertise (in this area) and are seeking technical assistance from international financial institutions," he said.

Japan's Daiwa Securities is advising on how to develop the barely functioning stock exchange it helped set up in Myanmar in the 1990s. South Korean bourse operator Korea Exchange has held talks with the authorities on a separate bourse.

The International Monetary Fund is advising on currency reforms.

Singapore said on Monday it would help Myanmar train its people in areas such as economic planning and urban development.

The government has launched a number of initiatives to boost the economy, introducing tax breaks for foreign investors and announcing tax exemptions to help exports of commodities such as rice, beans, corn and rubber.

But the secretary-general of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, said on Tuesday that more needed to be done in order to enjoy the trade perks the grouping can offer.

"We make it clear Myanmar will not benefit from dynamism from ASEAN, all the connectivity with ASEAN and the rest of the world until Myanmar makes adjustment inside, make some changes, amendment in the law, in the foreign investment law, in the production system," Surin Pitsuwan told a news conference in Tokyo.

"We do not just look for resources, we do not just look for manpower, cheap labour... We also would like to share with them our own experiences. They can emulate what is right, they can avoid what we have done wrong. But Myanmar has certainly ASEAN to rely on."
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Myanmar agrees to ceasefire with Mon separatists
Reuters – 4 hrs ago

YANGON (Reuters) - Myanmar agreed to a cease-fire with ethnic Mon separatists Wednesday, a peace mediator said, the latest in a series of tentative peace deals sought by a nominally civilian government trying to escape economic sanctions.

The cease-fire between the army and the New Mon State Party (NMSP) was the seventh such agreement between the government and ethnic rebel groups since former military junta leader and now President Thein Sein made a public call for peace talks with separatists late last year.

The cease-fire, one of 11 being sought by the government which came to power in 2010 in disputed polls, may strengthen Myanmar's case for getting Western sanctions lifted.

Along with freeing political prisoners and holding fair by-elections in April, the United States and European Union have made peace with ethnic militias a pre-requisite for a review of their embargoes.

The NMSP, the political wing of the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA), which has fought for autonomy in eastern Mon State under various guises since 1948, agreed to set up liaison offices and restrict movement of weapons, a mediator told Reuters.

"The Mon State government and NMSP this morning signed a five-point preliminary agreement in principle," Hla Maung Shwe said by telephone from Mawlamyaing, the venue for the talks about 304 km (190 miles) east of the biggest city, Yangon.

Most ethnic groups seek some form of self-rule.

Deals have been reached with the Karen National Union (KNU) and Shan State Army (South).

But talks with the powerful Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have been derailed by persistent fighting that aid groups say has displaced as many as 50,000 people and underlines the high political, economic and diplomatic stakes at play.

Kachin State is central to the energy interests of both Myanmar and China, hosting crucial hydropower dams and twin pipelines that will transport oil and natural gas to supply southwestern Yunnan province.
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Michelle Yeoh calls Myanmar's Suu Kyi her 'hero'
By THANYARAT DOKSONE | Associated Press – 1 hr 5 mins ago

BANGKOK (AP) — Michelle Yeoh remembers her pride as a Southeast Asian youth when Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and the actress thinks she's the right person to portray the Myanmar democracy icon.

Suu Kyi "was fighting for democracy in a nonviolent way, where passion was the armor and love for liberty was the weapon," Yeoh told The Associated Press.

"I've been in the business long enough to recognize what an amazing story that she has that we can tell," she said. "If anybody should play her, it's me."

The 49-year-old Yeoh said Suu Kyi is a "very big hero" of hers and she was keen to play her as soon as she heard a film was being made about the life of the 1991 Nobel recipient.

"The Lady," directed by Frenchman Luc Besson, was screened at international film festivals last year and opens in U.S. theaters next month.

Yeoh, a former Miss Malaysia, is internationally known for roles in the James Bond movie "Tomorrow Never Dies," ''Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and "Memoirs of a Geisha."

She spoke to The Associated Press while promoting the movie in Thailand, Myanmar's eastern neighbor and where most of "The Lady" was filmed. It tracks Suu Kyi's involvement in her native country's politics and how her dedication tested her marriage with British scholar Michael Aris, played by David Thewlis.

Suu Kyi, 66, was released from house arrest in November 2010. She had spent 15 years of the past two decades locked away by the military, who had ruled Myanmar since 1962.

A military-backed but elected government is now instituting reforms after the years of repression, and Suu Kyi plans to seek a parliament seat.

Yeoh recalled watching news coverage of Suu Kyi's 2010 release along with director Besson, the other lead actors, and Suu Kyi's son, Kim Aris. She said she played the identical scene of Suu Kyi coming up the gate and waving at the crowd earlier that morning.

"We were so crazily happy that finally ... she was freed," she said.

Yeoh traveled to Myanmar and met Suu Kyi in December 2010.

"I was extremely nervous because I was afraid she would look at me and go 'Whoa, my god, why are you portraying me?'" she said. "But when she was in front of me, all she did was she open her arms, (and) welcome me like a family member."

"She's one of those people that you meet and you'll never forget," Yeoh said.

The government was less welcoming. Yeoh was deported from Yangon, Myanmar's former capital, last June, and told that her name was on a blacklist.

Yeoh's enthusiasm for the cinematic Suu Kyi is not entirely requited. Suu Kyi said in an interview at her Yangon home last month that she doesn't plan to see the movie.

"I don't really like seeing films which are supposed to be about me," she said.

After the years of isolation, Suu Kyi is catching up with movies and the digital revolution, watching DVDs at home, she said, adding that she favors the films of actors she knew from her old moviegoing days, several decades ago.
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Reforms in Myanmar may spark refugee return
Possible repatriation of 1 million refugees looms as Myanmar undergoes rapid reforms
By Denis d. Gray, Associated Press | Associated Press – 31 minutes ago

MAE LA REFUGEE CAMP, Thailand (AP) -- The pastor stood before more than 300 young Burmese refugees gathered for morning prayers in a weathered, jungle church.

"There's a time for war, and a time for peace. Sixty-three years is long enough for killing," he told them. "Hope to see you all soon in our beautiful land."

Simon Htoo's buoyant words would have been unlikely just a few months ago, but surprisingly rapid reforms and cease-fires under way in Myanmar are opening the prospects for the return of one of the world's largest refugee populations — some 1 million Burmese huddled in frontier camps and hideouts across five countries.

The looming task for the international community will be massive. One of the least known Diaspora of recent times includes an array of ethnic groups and religions — Buddhist, Christian and Muslim — driven from their homeland by oppression of political dissidents and brutal military campaigns against Myanmar's minorities.

The fighting and human rights abuses still persist in some areas, and even if stopped, many refugees say the hatreds, suspicions and double-crosses of past decades must be overcome before they feel safe enough to return.

One of the ethnic groups, the Karen, has been waging a guerrilla war for greater autonomy for 63 years from iron-fisted military regimes. The Kachin took up arms again last year.

"Signing a cease-fire is very easy — you can do it in a few minutes — but implementation is a different matter. That depends not on the smiles on their faces, but their sincerity, what is really in their hearts. Maybe it's another trick," Htoo, a Karen Baptist pastor, said after his sermon in this camp sheltering more than 50,000 refugees.

When they do return, the refugees will emerge from Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Malaysia and China, a refugee mass that with the Iraqis and Afghans ranks among the largest in the world.

Their living conditions vary vastly. In the fetid settlements of Bangladesh, as many as 400,000 illegal Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority, hover on the edge of existence. Others live in a well-established string of U.N.-recognized camps along the Thai border, home to three generations who have known no other life.

Most would be returning to border regions of razed villages, minefields, traumatized people and almost nonexistent support systems in a country that is already among the world's poorest. Many fear that with the world quick to applaud Myanmar's reforms, pressure will mount to force them back before conditions are right.

"People in the refugees camps must be given a choice: to go home, stay in Thailand or be resettled abroad. We don't trust Burmese politics because things are still very unclear," says Dr. Cynthia Maung, a refugee doctor they call "Mother Theresa of Burma" whose Thai border clinic has treated thousands. "Nobody is going back now."

Although preliminary plans for repatriation are being discussed among aid organizations and refugee leaders, roughly 1,000 are still fleeing into Thailand every month, says Jack Dunford, veteran head of the Thai Burma Border Consortium, which provides basic food and supplies to the Thai camps.

Thailand insists that there will be no forceful repatriation "until the situation is safe," Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Thani Thongphakdi told The Associated Press. "No time frame has been set for their return."

But in Bangladesh, more than 10,000 are set for repatriation, and negotiations are under way with Myanmar for the rest to follow.

"Right now we are motivating the refugees to return home since we believe the human rights situation has improved," said Firoz Salahuddin, the Bangladesh government official in charge of the repatriation. "But it's a difficult task. Refugees are still fearful and need a lot of persuasion."

Those who qualify can seek resettlement in third countries, which have taken 114,000 from the Asian region since 2005, according to the International Organization for Migration. Of these, 90,000 have gone to the United States, with the others spread among 12 other nations, including Australia, Canada, Sweden and Japan. Up to 18,000 will be resettled this year.

The U.S. government intends to continue supporting both the refugees and increasing aid to Myanmar if reforms continue. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who visited Myanmar in December, said Washington was committed to "helping the refugees for the future in their homeland, so they can become self-reliant after two decades of just being dependent on aid in the camps."

But other donors enthusiastic about the recent changes, notably the European Union, are shifting their focus and funds to Myanmar's heartland, dominated by the Burman majority, and the refugees are feeling the crunch.

Dunford says food distributions will have to be slashed further this year to a "breakpoint" 1,650 calories — well below the World Health Organization minimum daily adult requirement of 2,100 — along with items for shelter like bamboo and salaries of camp teachers.

In camps like Mae La, a warren of thatch and bamboo huts sprawled below limestone cliffs, everyone closely follows developments in Myanmar with a mix of hope, anxiety, suspicion and indecision.

"I want to go back to my country, but not now. There may be changes in the big cities, but not in the countryside," said May Soe, who fled to Thailand after Burmese soldiers killed her father and raped women in her village.

Torn between following her brother to the United States or staying, the 41-year-old medic remained behind to serve in the children's ward of Dr. Cynthia's Mae Tao clinic.

Others, like 36-year-old teacher Saw Wado, are ready to return and help rebuild the country. "We have lived at such a low level for so long that we are not afraid to go home," he said.

The Karen and other ethnic minority Christians have also retained an unwavering faith, more akin to that of the 19th century when they were converted by American missionaries.

At the camp's Care Villa, a shelter for the most severely handicapped, a group of young men — all blinded by land mines, missing arms and legs — joyously belted out a hymn.

"We don't know what the next day will bring, what the future holds for us, but God will lead the way," they sang in flawless part-harmony.
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Brisbane Times - Suu Kyi campaign sheds light on Burma's political spirit
February 2, 2012

DAWEI, Burma: Euphoric supporters waved opposition party flags and offered yellow garlands. They lined crumbling roads and climbed trees, cars and roofs as Aung San Suu Kyi spoke at impromptu rallies. Some cried as her convoy passed.

Cheered by tens of thousands, the 66-year-old opposition leader electrified Burma's repressive political landscape everywhere she travelled on her first political tour of the countryside since her party registered to run in a historic ballot that could see her elected to parliament.

''We will bring democracy to the country,'' Ms Suu Kyi said to roaring applause as her voice boomed through loudspeakers from the balcony of a National League for Democracy office in the southern coastal district of Dawei. ''We will bring rule of law … and we will see to it that repressive laws are repealed.''

As huge crowds screamed ''Long Live Daw Aung San Suu Kyi!'' and others held banners saying ''You Are Our Heart'', she said: ''We can overcome any obstacle with unity and perseverance, however difficult it may be.''

Ms Suu Kyi's campaign - and byelections due on April 1 - are being watched closely worldwide as a crucial test of whether the military-backed government is committed to reform.

The fact that Ms Suu Kyi was able to speak openly in public - and her supporters were able to greet her en masse without fear of reprisal - was proof of dramatic progress. Such scenes would have been unthinkable just a year ago, when the long-ruling junta was still in power and demonstrations were all but banned. Suu Kyi's visit was equivalent to waking a sleeping dragon, said the environmental activist Aung Zaw Hein.

''People had been afraid to discuss politics for so long,'' he said. ''Now that she's visiting, the political spirit of people has been awakened.'' Looking into the giant crowds, Mr Hein said: ''I've never seen people's faces look like this before. For the first time they have hope in their eyes.''

A National League for Democracy win on April 1 would be highly symbolic, but Ms Suu Kyi's party would have limited power since the parliament is dominated by the military and the ruling pro-military party. Up for grabs are 48 seats vacated by MPs who were appointed to the cabinet and other posts.*
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BusinessWeek - Myanmar Rice Shipments May Double This Year, Group Predicts
January 31, 2012, 6:20 PM EST
By Supunnabul Suwannakij

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Rice exports from Myanmar may more than double to 1.5 million metric tons this year, an industry group forecast, highlighting the country’s potential to boost overseas trade as its government pursues reform.

As the government starts to purchase production at above- market prices to encourage greater planting, shipments may increase to as much as 2 million tons next year and reach 3 million tons by 2015, according to the Myanmar Rice Industry Association. Sales totaled 700,000 tons in 2011.

An advance in exports may bolster global stockpiles, while boosting competition for Thailand, Vietnam and India. The projected gain may make Myanmar the world’s sixth-largest shipper this year, with volumes at the highest level since the 1960s, when the country was the world’s largest exporter, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Myanmar coming into the market will take away some markets from Thailand, worsening Thai rice exports,” said Vichai Sriprasert, honorary president of Thai Rice Exporters Association. “In the long run, Myanmar has the potential to become the top exporter because of its fertile land and water.”

The price of 100 percent grade-B rice from Thailand, a benchmark variety from the largest exporter, plunged 18 percent from a three-year high in November to $546 per ton on Jan. 18. Rough rice traded on the Chicago Board of Trade, which was at $14.49 per 100 pounds at 5:33 p.m. in Singapore, has lost 2.5 percent this year. Prices have declined as India resumed exports of non-basmati rice after a four-year ban.

‘Economic Frontier’

Myanmar has the potential to become the Asia’s “next economic frontier” if it takes advantage of its natural resources, young labor force and proximity to China and India, the International Monetary Fund said last week. The country, which shares borders with the world’s two most-populous nations, may grow 5.5 percent in 2011-2012, the IMF said.

Myanmar President Thein Sein has been releasing dissidents and engaging with the opposition, prompting the U.S. and Europe to reassess sanctions against the former military dictatorship. The country is the “most promising” Asian market as the government reforms the political system in a nation that has ample natural resources, investor Jim Rogers said in November.

Target Markets

While local consumption accounts for 11.5 million to 12 million tons per year, total milled-rice output may increase 11 percent to 13.5 million tons in the year that started in October, and climb to 15.5 million tons over the next three years, the association said in an e-mail. Target markets for white-rice sales are Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines, it said.

The increase in planting was driven by a government policy of buying rough rice at about 10 percent above the market rate, according to the association. The program started in about the middle of January, it said.

Global rice stockpiles may gain 3 percent to 100.1 million tons in 2011-2012, the highest level since the season ended 2003, as worldwide output increases 2.5 percent to a record 461.4 million tons, according to projections from the USDA.

Myanmar has agreed to sell 200,000 tons of white rice to Bulog, Indonesia’s state food agency, the association said in a separate statement on Jan. 29. That’ll be the first exports to Indonesia in more than 10 years, it said.
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Myanmar to introduce e-visa system
By Indo Asian News Service | IANS India Private Limited – 7 hours ago

Yangon, Feb 1 (IANS) Myanmar is going to introduce e-visa system as a pilot project in February to facilitate foreign travellers' visits and promote tourism in the country.

Myanmar Ministry of Hotels and Tourism, which will introduce online electronic visa system, has started installing internet lines at the information departments of the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Immigration and Population, Xinhua reported citing the Yangon Times.

The move will facilitate world visitors in those countries where there is no Myanmar embassy.

Some airlines arranged visa-on-arrival for visitors from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

Ahead of the country's general election in November, 2010, Myanmar regranted the visa-on-arrival service of its kind, which was halted in September during the same year.

In 2011, the number of tourists arrival at Myanmar's Yangon International Airport reached a total of 359,359.

Also, Myanmar is implementing a plan to extend and upgrade the Yangon International Airport into an international aiport that is capable of handling 3.8 million passengers a year and providing full service needed to attain an international airport's standard.

There are six domestic airlines in Myanmar including the state-owned -- Myanmar Airways -- and five private-run -- Air Mandalay, Yangon Airways, Air Bagan, Asian Wings and Kanbawza.

There is also another Myanmar international airline -- the Myanmar Airways International (MAI)-- flying solely some foreign destinations.

Besides the MAI, which flies internationally as Myanmar's national flag carrier, there are 13 foreign airlines flying Yangon comprising Air China, China Southern Airline, China Eastern Airlines, Thai Airways International, Indian Airlines, Air Asia, Taiwan region's China airlines, Silk Air, Malaysian Airlines, Bangkok Airways, Jetstar Asia, Thai Air Asia and Vietnam Airlines.
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Washington Examiner - Myanmar reveals its external debt is $11 billion
By: The Associated Press | 02/01/12 11:28 AM

Myanmar owes $11 billion in sometimes-decades-old foreign debt and is negotiating with Japan and Italy to repay the outstanding sums, the finance minister said, disclosing the country's external debt for the first time in recent years.

Myanmar's economy was stunted for many years by mismanagement and by Western sanctions imposed as the long-ruling military failed to implement democratic reforms. The military-backed but elected government that took office last year has pushed political and economic changes.

Finance Minister Hla Tun told Parliament that as Myanmar makes reforms and expands its international relations, it has begin discussions on the debt with multilateral institutions and donor nations, including Japan and Italy.

He revealed the figures in Parliament on Tuesday, and lawmaker Thein Nyunt recounted details to The Associated Press on Wednesday.

Hla Tun said $8.4 billion in debt dated from the socialist regime of the late Gen. Ne Win between 1962-1988 and $2.61 billion debt was incurred after a military junta took over in 1988, making a total of $11.023 billion.

He said the pre-1988 debt represented bilateral loans and borrowing from and multilateral institutions that the government was unable to pay because loans and grants were stopped after the junta violently quashed a 1988 pro-democracy uprising. Available revenue at the time went into development projects.

The largest creditor before 1988 is Japan, with loans of $6.39 billion, he said, and the biggest post-1988 creditor is China with $2.13 billion.
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Feb 2, 2012
Asia Times Online - When rogues drift apart
By Jacob Zenn

When United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar, she pointedly raised Washington's concern about the country's military links with North Korea. While most of the news out of Myanmar since has focused on President Thein Sein's reform signals and the US's positive responses, the state of Naypyidaw's bilateral ties with Pyongyang looms quietly over Washington's engagement gambit.

Isolated and sanctioned by much of the international community, North Korea has traded its weapons-making expertise with rogue regimes in Syria, Libya and Myanmar. Bilateral relations and commercial exchanges with Myanmar had taken on greater importance after the Arab Spring upended Libya's Muammar

The question now is whether the US's recent rapprochement with Myanmar, a process that began behind the scenes in 2009, will cost the North Korean regime another of its few, arms-purchasing allies. While the US has predicated the removal of its sanctions against Myanmar on democratic reforms, severing ties with Pyongyang could be highly lucrative for Thein Sein's nominally civilian, military-backed government.

To be sure, Myanmar's ties to North Korea are based on shaky historical foundations. Myanmar, then known as Burma, broke off ties with Pyongyang in 1983 after North Korean agents attempted to assassinate then South Korean president Chun Doo-Hwan in a bombing in the old capital of Yangon that killed over 20 people, including a South Korean deputy prime minister.

Myanmar restored formal diplomatic relations with North Korea in 2007, notably at a time it came under rising pressure from the US. Before that, Myanmar and North Korea has conducted several underground deals. For instance, North Korean "foreign advisers" were depicted in photographs helping Myanmar to build an extensive tunnel network, including near the new capital of Naypyidaw, between 2003 and 2006.

While it is still unclear whether these tunnels were related to Myanmar's alleged efforts to build a nuclear weapon capability, they certainly would have served the dual purpose as an emergency shelter in case of any foreign attack or internal insurrection. The US Navy has in recent years turned back at least two North Korean ships destined for Myanmar that were suspected of carrying weapons and possible nuclear materials.

It is also unclear how much of Myanmar's recent engagement with North Korea was meant as a deterrent against a possible US attack similar to the pre-emptive assault against Iraq. The George W Bush administration frequently referred to Myanmar as an "outpost of tyranny", along with Iran and Syria. Former First Lady Barbara Bush openly cheered on street demonstrators who protested against the Myanmar government in the so-called 2007 "Saffron" revolution.

In return for North Korea's tunnel-building assistance and weapons sales, Myanmar provided North Korea with rice to help the former Kim Jong-il regime alleviate the country's chronic food crisis. The terms of recent deals are unclear, but Myanmar has a steady source of foreign exchange earnings from natural gas sales to China, India and Thailand to purchase North Korean wares.

Now, with the gathering US-Myanmar rapprochement, security analysts are looking for outward clues that Myanmar has downgraded ties with North Korea. As part of its terms of engagement, the US has demanded that Myanmar come clean about its past dealings with North Korea, particularly concerning weapons procurements and possible nuclear contacts.

United States Senator Mitch McConnell, a steadfast critic of Myanmar's military regime, has called on Naypyidaw to sever its relationship with North Korea altogether. President Thein Sein, on the other hand, has consistently denied that Myanmar has had any nuclear weapons-related contacts with North Korea. (An expose report by the exile-run Democratic Voice of Burma argued with compelling evidence that Myanmar was actively pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, most likely with North Korean help.)

The US is also apparently working with regional ally South Korea to drive a wedge between Myanmar and North Korea, including through conventional arms sales from Seoul. Unlike the US and European Union, South Korea does not maintain formal sanctions against Myanmar.

When Thein Sein began his tentative political reforms in 2011, South Korea resumed offering loans to the country for the first time since 2005. South Korea had temporarily halted lending because of the military junta's abysmal human-rights record, exhibited by the regime's brutal clampdown on anti-government protests in 2007.

Before 2005, South Korea had provided aid and grants worth an estimated US$120 million. South Korea also maintains various natural gas concessions in Myanmar waters. The resumption of South Korean lending will give the Myanmar economy a much-needed boost while it undertakes badly needed reforms to its distorted financial architecture.

Washington is wagering that the carrot of removing economic sanctions will influence Myanmar to move away from North Korea and a potential nuclear brinksmanship scenario. That trade-off and the promise of less international isolation probably look increasingly attractive from Thein Sein's perspective.

Kim Jong-il's son and successor, Kim Jong-eun, is beginning his reign more isolated than either his father or grandfather, Kim Il-sung. Meanwhile, North Korea's past proliferation partners, Libya and Syria, are no longer reliable customers. And with Myanmar drifting into the US's orbit, an isolated Kim Jong-eun may be forced to negotiate a detente with the US and South Korea.

Instead, the evolving engagement between the US and Myanmar could serve as a guide for a potential US-North Korean accommodation. By tempering relations with the US and suspending its nuclear program, including cooperation with Iran, North Korea could be rewarded with reduced economic sanctions and with Western investments that mitigate Pyongyang's economic and financial dependence on China.

Both were apparently key motivations for Myanmar's recent diplomatic shift towards the US and potential drift away from rogue regimes like North Korea.

Jacob Zenn is a lawyer and international security analyst based in Washington, DC. He writes regularly on Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Nigeria and runs an open-source research, translation, and due diligence team through http://zopensource.net/ and can be reached at jaz@Zopensource.net.
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COMMENTARY
Bangkok Post - Much to look forward to in Myanmar
Published: 1/02/2012 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News

Every road is leading to Myanmar and a number of Thai and foreign companies are joining the bandwagon as they don't want to miss the golden opportunities opening up next door.

I had a chance to visit Myanmar last month. After my four-day trip to several cities, I can say that this once-closed country will become very attractive in many areas once the long imposed trade sanctions by Western countries including the United States, are lifted.

In my opinion, the atmosphere in many big cities that I went to, is similar to that of Bangkok or Chiang Mai some 30-40 years ago.

I was quite impressed to see that people in Myanmar are very religious and go to pay respects to the Lord Buddha at temples near their homes and workplaces many times a day. Such a thing is rare in Thailand nowadays.

Our local guide said Myanmar, which could be dubbed "a sleeping tiger", is turning over and waking up from a long sleep. Its people are pinning their hopes on future economic development, now that the country's military regime is shifting towards democracy.

He complimented our tour group and said Thai businessmen should invest more in his country. The Burmese people like Thailand, and millions of them have come to work here. Moreover, they consider Thai-made products to be luxury items due to their high quality. I was not completely taken in by these sweet words, however.

It is undeniable that Myanmar has a lot of opportunities awaiting investors from around the world and Thailand should make the most of this. We are already so close, it only takes an hour by plane to reach the commercial capital of Yangon.

Myanmar is rich in natural resources and cultural heritage, and if the country uses these two boons efficiently, it could develop very quickly and attract a lot of tourists.

And if the few million Myanmar workers currently here in Thailand should decide to return home, what would Thailand do? We would be in short supply of maids and factory workers. At present our country has a serious labour shortage, so we have no choice but to rely on foreign workers.

And have you heard about the Dawei industrial development project in the eastern part of Myanmar? It is 10 times bigger than Rayong's Map Ta Phut industrial estate. If this project really takes shape, it will draw a lot of foreign investment for sure and this will eventually affect Thailand. (It is not my intention to make Thai factory owners nervous; what I am saying is that we should prepare ourselves to take on a different role, so as to make the most of the precious opportunities opening up across the border.)

Indeed, Thai companies should invest in Myanmar, using their own strengths and production advantages to establish a presence there. It's time the Thai people learned to speak Burmese and familiarised themselves with the food and culture there. We could also take on the role of an elder brother, assisting a younger sibling to stand and walk firmly.

Myanmar's growth will be good for Thailand as well. One point we cannot overlook is that we ourselves will need to develop a step further so as not to compete for cheap labour. We must increase the value of our products and make more high-end goods.

In the area of tourism, Thailand will have to find new angles and products to attract more foreign visitors because our eco-tourism sites are probably not as fresh and exciting as the places now opening up in Myanmar. If Thailand can find a new selling point, we will be able to maintain our leadership in regional tourism and continue to advance alongside our neighbouring country because the Thai brand remains strong in the world community.

My Myanmar guide told me one thing I won't easily forget. Everything is in a flux, he said. Myanmar used to be the centre of development in Southeast Asia 40 years ago; then it suffered a serious setback brought on by decades of military rule. Now the sleeping tiger has awoken, and as it increases speed to catch up on developments, it might even overtake Thailand _ if the Thais don't stop fighting among themselves. Dare I believe him? The truth of his statement should become clear in the very near future.

Krissana Parnsoonthorn is Deputy Business Editor, Bangkok Post.
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The Nation - Burma relaxes foreign currency exchange controls
February 1, 2012 6:08 pm

Rangoon - Burma's government on Wednesday relaxed rules on legitimate money exchangers, allowing them to swap up to 10,000 dollars into the kyat currency without documentation from Burmese nationals.

Under the previous rules, Burmese nationals with identity cards could only buy or sell a maximum of 2,000 dollars daily at official foreign exchange outlets.

Those seeking to exchange more than 2,000 dollars needed to provide evidence of how they had acquired the foreign currency. As of Wednesday, the limit was hiked to 10,000 dollars without documentation, bank sources said.

The exchange rate Wednesday was 820 kyat for 1 dollar, compared with the black market rate of 810 kyat.
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Asia News Network - Gold rush to Burma as country opens up
Businessmen from the US, Germany and Japan flock to the country in search of the next big thing
Nirmal Ghosh, The Straits Times
Publication Date : 01-02-2012

The region's latest gold rush is on, and all the roads, it appears, are leading to Burma.

As the government opens up the previously tightly-controlled economy and accelerates reforms, and as some Western-imposed sanctions get lifted, businessmen from the United States, Germany and Japan, among others, have been flocking to the country in search of the next big thing.

For weeks now, business hotels in Rangoon have been running at full occupancy, while real estate prices have shot up and so have rentals, the result of the influx of foreigners. Investors are scouting for opportunities in a country with much untapped potential across the board, from mining and energy to tourism and telecommunications.

"Things are beginning to fall into place in Myanmar (Burma)," observed Singapore-based Manu Bhaskaran, chief executive of Centennial Asia Advisors. "Obviously there is risk, but clearly there is momentum."

That momentum is evident in the growing number of visits by businessmen from around the world.

This month, an American delegation is due to visit. Last month, billionaire George Soros went, and said he would set up an office to facilitate philanthropic work. In December last year, a group of executives from Germany's biggest bank and its government investment arm visited, as did a Japanese team of corporates from Hitachi, Toshiba, Mitsui, Itochu, JX Nippon Oil & Energy, and Marubeni.

Investors from as far away as Norway, Brazil and Russia have expressed interest in Burma's energy sector, while neighbours China, India, Thailand and Vietnam have held trade shows in Rangoon or dropped by to explore infrastructure projects.

The keen interest follows the rapid political and economic reforms that Burma's government has been carrying out, at a pace that has surprised even critics. On Monday, in an exclusive interview with The Straits Times, President Thein Sein pledged his commitment to the reforms, saying they will go on until Burma achieves a "flourishing democracy".

International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive Meral Karasulu, after a mission to Burma early last month, told reporters: "Myanmar has a high growth potential and could become the next economic frontier in Asia, if it can turn its rich natural resources, young labour force, and proximity to some of the most dynamic economies in the world into its advantage."
Indeed, there is vast opportunity in the country of 62 million, Asean's biggest after Indonesia. It boasts natural resources such as gas deposits, has a large, young workforce, and offers many opportunities in tourism and infrastructure development.

But, as Bhaskaran pointed out, numerous risks remain in doing business in a country that has just emerged from decades of military dictatorship.

Among the problems, it has a poorly developed financial sector, a very small stock market, an unsettling dual foreign exchange rate, and frequent power shortages. There is no statutory minimum wage, and health care and educational systems have been eroded. Young people in Burma today speak less English than those in their 60s.

"There is certainly a gold rush, but at the same time, a lot of money is still off the table," noted professor Sean Turnell, head of the Burma Economic Watch unit at Australia's Macquarie University. "People are visiting and recognising that there is good potential, but they are still cautious."

One of the key barriers is the massive gap between the official and black market rate for the kyat - 6.5 kyat to US$1 versus about 800 kyat to US$1 on the latter - which complicates business.

Another key issue is labour law reform, needed to protect both employers and workers. A new law allowing trade unions to be formed has not yet taken effect because the rules have not been finalised, although they could be ready in weeks. A new law covering labour disputes is also in the works.

The country could also find a shortage of skilled workers, which could see many locals returning from abroad - including Singapore - to take up the new jobs when investments take root. Sceptics also warn of 'potential volatility' in the reforms.

But analysts noted that the government is making moves in the right direction, such as making plans to empower its central bank to fix the exchange rate issue, and working to set up market structures for trade.

"At the top level they are genuinely trying and would like to do it as soon as possible," observed Turnell.

Thein Sein, who is now in Singapore on a state visit, this week also signed an agreement for Singapore to train Burmese officials in a wide range of sectors, from legal, banking and financial to trade and tourism.

Bhaskaran pointed out that such constraints were not unlike those found in China and Vietnam when those countries began opening up.

"These are problems but they are not insurmountable," he said. "With some economic sanctions being reduced, and economic and political reform, the momentum will soon become unstoppable."
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The Epoch Times - Military-Backed Rule Blurs Hopes for Democracy in Burma
By Kremena Krumova
Epoch Times Staff Created: January 31, 2012 Last Updated: February 1, 2012

Nearly unimaginable a year ago, the recent reforms in Burma—releasing political prisoners, allowing democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to run for Parliament, loosening censorship, and holding peace talks with armed ethnic groups—have been widely lauded and even rewarded by Western governments. In the last month, the United States restored diplomatic relations with Burma (also called Myanmar), and the EU removed travel bans on top officials.

Yet the reforms are inherently fragile, supported only by good will, and not rule of law. The country’s less than democratic constitution and the lack of transparency over who is really governing the country, means that any change could be reversed at any moment.

“If we are saying we are going toward democracy, these undemocratic elements in the constitution have to change,” says Dr. Sein Win, Burma’s prime minister-in-exile, who lives in Washington, D.C.

Dr. Sein Win, a first cousin to Suu Kyi, is chairman of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), the government-in-exile. The NCGUB was formed in the aftermath of the 1990 general election that Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party won by a landslide and the junta ignored.

A guiding principle of the NCGUB is that once democracy and human rights are restored in Burma it will dissolve. That time has yet to come.

Under Burma’s Constitution—drafted by the military generals in 2008 and endorsed in a sham referendum—the military has an enshrined role in political leadership in the form of the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC), a permanent military institution.

The NDSC has 11 members, including the president, two vice presidents, the commander in chief, his deputy, and two speakers, and four key ministers—foreign affairs, home affairs, defense, and border affairs. The latter three ministries all go to the military, or “Tatmadaw,” effectively giving them majority voice in the council.

Moreover, 25 percent of seats in the national Parliament and regional assemblies are also reserved for Tatmadaw members.

And although the president appoints the commander in chief, the military chief has a strong say in ruling the country through his ministers. He can also suspend all “fundamental rights” “if necessary” during an emergency, although formally he needs presidential approval.

After the November 2010 election, the country’s first in 20 years, the ruling junta was dissolved and power was handed to a quasi-civilian government under President Thein Sein, a former general. The 2008 constitution also remains in place.

Win says the real power in Burma, therefore, is still in the hands of the army, which means that without the agreement of the commander in chief, nothing substantial can happen.
It is possible, the army supports democratic reform, but Win says without a real change to the constitution, those reforms can be reversed at any time.

“Only reforms are not enough—they have to be backed by law,” said the PM-in-exile.

Achieving this is what’s tricky. Tim Aye-Hardy, director of the New York-based Burma Global Action Network, describes the current constitution as intentionally designed to create significant confusion and a lack of consistency between the president, parliament, and the military.

“This is what they [the generals] have planned for so long to happen and I feel like the international community and Daw Suu are somehow compelled to play along with it.” Daw is an honorific affectionately used to refer to Suu Kyi.

Following the plan, Suu Kyi and the NLD are allowed to run for government in by-elections in April. Out of 664 seats in Parliament, 48 are vacant. If elections are fair, the NLD can be expected to win all of them.

Window of Opportunity

But while 48 seats, or roughly 7 percent of Parliaments, are not enough to impose legislative changes, some feel that it’s positive that the opposition will be in Parliament at all.

“A small window of hope is about to open by having Daw Suu and other NLD members in the Parliament, that she might be able to persuade the MPs from the military and majority party (USDP) to support any proposed bills and overturn existing unjust laws,” said Aye-Hardy.

Then the proposed changes need to be taken up by the president who he has to “convince or impose” them on the military, said Paul Copeland, a Toronto-based lawyer and longtime activist for democracy in Burma.

“Suu Kyi can initiate the changes but the president has to drive them. If he is not interested in these changes, it is not going to happen. But I think he is,” said Copeland.

The lawyer says that even if the military still has the say in Burma, the country has gone a long way away from absolute control.

“It would be unfair to the president, to say that the military are ruling behind the scenes, as he has been the one driving democracy in Burma. I think the president has to be given credit.”

The release of 651 prisoners earlier this month came after a presidential amnesty. The NLD was allowed to register for the by-elections under President Thein Sein, and he displayed good will in meeting Suu Kyi after her release from detention shortly after the November elections.

Last week, Burma’s Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin declared the reforms in Burma “irreversible.” And in President Thein Sein’s first interview with foreign media, he told the Washington Post that he vowed to bring peace and stability to the Burmese people and all ethnic groups.

Believing Too Soon?

Still, the extent of the president’s power has been questioned. Only half of those released in the amnesty were political prisoners, leaving several hundred dissidents behind bars.

And despite peace talks and ordering a ceasefire with the Kachin Independence Army, government troops have continued to attack ethnic Kachin bases in northern Burma.
It begs the question of who is really calling the shots in Burma.

“The real power is in the ex-Commander in Chief Than Shwe, while the current one, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing seems to be the paper tiger,” says Kanbawza Win, former foreign affairs secretary to the prime minister of Burma in the 1970s, who now lives in exile in Canada.

Commenting via email from Vancouver, Kanbawza Win says Shwe still influences the NDSC and is pulling the strings behind the scenes. The ex-official doesn’t believe the government or the generals will ever change their mentality and will thus cling to the current constitution in order to remain “the only pebble in the beach.”

In the article titled “Why Should the West Fall into the Burmese Trap,” published in Burma Digest, Kanbawza Win warns, “The West should not be carried away by some cosmetic reforms and that Burma’s long-ruling military still wields enormous power despite a veneer of democracy provided by the sham elections with a dubious constitution.”

When it comes to lifting economic sanctions on Burma, most experts agree that without real reforms, the gesture does nothing to help the Burmese people, and will only benefit the regime and its cronies.

“We should all be aware that economic hardships and severe poverty that people of Burma are facing are the direct results of the decades of economic mismanagement by the regime and plunder of the country’s natural resources for their own personal benefits, not because of sanctions imposed by the Western countries,” says Aye-Hardy.

Thus many Burma activists argue that the best course is for the West to offer cautious support for the changes, and remain vigilant about protecting interests of the people in one of the poorest countries in the world.

“It’s important that the international community remains strong in its approach on Burma until there is genuine and deeper political reforms taking place. What people in Burma want is the release of all political prisoners and a nationwide ceasefire that leads to a long-term political settlement through national reconciliation,” wrote Zoya Phan from Burma Campaign U.K. in an email from London.
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February 1, 2012 3:38 pm
The Financial Times - Myanmar’s dissident media feels pinch amid reforms
By Gwen Robinson in Chiang Mai

With its bold, politically charged covers and reports on everything from prison conditions to ethnic conflicts in Myanmar, the Irrawaddy magazine became famous for its reliable reporting when independent media was being brutally suppressed inside the country.

Set up by young activists who fled Myanmar after the 1988 military crackdown Irrawaddy, from its base in Thailand, developed into an influential voice advocating changes that are now playing out in Myanmar, from the release of political prisoners to the lifting of censorship and promises of free elections.

Yet just as the world welcomes Myanmar’s move out of diplomatic isolation, the final print edition of the magazine will be published this week. In some respects it is the victim of its own success.

Despite a tiny circulation of about 5,000 and an annual subscription of just $50, the Irrawaddy magazine has helped “shape international policy [on Myanmar] over two decades, and we’re proud of that,” said managing editor Kyaw Zwa Moe.

As Aung Zaw, chief editor, founder and brother of Kyaw Zwa Moe, puts it, the Irrawaddy is both beneficiary and casualty of recent reforms. “If real change is coming to Myanmar, it’s an equally big transition for us,” he said.

A funding crisis nearly killed off the magazine after Myanmar’s November 2010 elections. While widely condemned as flawed, the poll put some opposition activists into parliament and prompted some donors to cut funding to exiles such as Irrawaddy in favour of groups inside Myanmar, in order to “encourage” early signs of reform, as one diplomat explained.

The two brothers who felt strongly about continuing the magazine, decided to turn the journal into a quarterly and boost Irrawaddy’s online content. In recent months its online readership has soared, to nearly 6m page views per month from about 2.5m since Myanmar lifted online censorship in August, according to its figures in late 2011.

The numbers “ring true,” noted a western aid donor. “The Irrawaddy has become very popular with Burmese readers.”

Even so as Myanmar’s nominally civilian government rolls out ambitious reforms, aid donors have shifted funding priorities. Among the Irrawaddy’s key donors, at least two European governments have withdrawn funding.

Some European countries, including Denmark and Norway, have increased spending on NGOs within Myanmar at the expense of exile groups. Many donors have criticised the “dependence mentality” among exiles and are tightening criteria for funding, said a UK aid official.

“Donors are getting exhausted, not just from supporting groups like us, but the whole [dissident] movement,” noted Mr Aung Zaw, “but it’s not all bad, this will make us more independent, stronger”.

But other donors, among them the Open Society Foundations of billionaire investor George Soros, who recently opened an office for philanthropic activities in Yangon, are maintaining funding for exile groups and in Irrawaddy’s case, have increased assistance.

“With some of the recent changes in Burma, the press seem somewhat freer, but the laws regulating media are still on the books – none have been revoked,” said Maureen Aung-Thwin, director of OSF’s Myanmar programme.

Other Myanmar watchers fear the Irrawaddy’s demise signifies the premature end of exile groups that have played a valuable role with their critical eye and well-placed sources inside the country.

The Irrawaddy was “a very good source of information”, said Bertil Lintner, a prominent commentator and author on Myanmar. “It would be a pity if the exiled media disappeared. No one knows how long the so-called ‘spring’ inside Burma will last. The situation there is not irreversible.”

While censorship may appear to have eased, below the surface, it is still pervasive and news journals must submit articles for official approval, say Yangon-based journalists. “At this time, we’re facing some of the hardest censorship we’ve known – it’s so ironic,” one local journalist remarked.

“Of course it’s sad, to let this successful and influential magazine fade away,” said Mr Kyaw Zwa Moe. “For Burma, such a print magazine is still essential, not only now but in the future. But at least we have the websites to continue our mission.”
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COMMENTARY
The Irrawaddy - The ‘Rule of Law’ in Burma
By STEPHEN BLOOM Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Over the past several months, Burma’s pro-democracy icon and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has constantly repeated the refrain that the government must establish the “rule of law.”

That’s a worthwhile goal, as well as a necessary achievement if Burma is going to raise the quality of life and standard of living for its 54 million long-oppressed and impoverished people.

In the words of William H. Neukom, the president of the World Justice Project (WJP), “The rule of law is the foundation for communities of opportunity and equity—it is the predicate for the eradication of poverty, violence, corruption, pandemics and other threats to civil society.”

But what does the “rule of law” mean?

The answer is important, because if Suu Kyi cannot articulate, communicate and get general agreement on what the “rule of law” means to the Burmese people, it threatens to become just a political slogan rather than a tangible goal towards which objective progress can be measured.

This is easier said than done, however, because just like the term “democracy,” there are many different interpretations of the “rule of law.” As a result, for Suu Kyi to both define and gain a shared understanding of the rule of law may be the political equivalent of rounding up a school of fish with her bare hands. But it is important that she try.

Even legal scholars and political scientists cannot agree on the meaning of the rule of law. On a macro level, the people wishing to nail down the concept fall into two camps: the proponents of a “thick” definition and the proponents of a “thin” definition.

A thick definition of the rule of law would include both adequate procedures to ensure that Burma is “a government of laws and not of men,” as well as substantive laws that protect fundamental human and democratic rights.

The UN secretary-general’s definition of the rule of law provides an example:

The rule of law is “a principle of governance in which all persons, institutions and entities, public and private, including the State itself, are accountable to laws that are publicly promulgated, equally enforced and independently adjudicated, and which are consistent with international human rights norms and standards.

It requires, as well, measures to ensure adherence to the principles of supremacy of law, equality before the law, accountability to the law, fairness in the application of the law, separation of powers, participation in decision-making, legal certainty, avoidance of arbitrariness and procedural and legal transparency.”

This is a good definition, and if broken down could be one useful way of measuring Burma’s progress towards the rule of law.

But the problem with adopting a definition which is too “thick” is that it allows a great deal of discretion by both authorities and citizens, uses terms that are vague and difficult to define, and therefore runs counter to important aspects of the rule of law.

The risk is that anyone who believes a law is unfair or was not democratically adopted could choose not to abide by it and argue that the action is justified.

For this reason, the advocates of a “thin” definition say that the term “rule of law” should apply to procedures only—i.e., that a law must be prospective, well-known and have characteristics of generality, equality, and certainty, but the content of the law and how it was adopted are irrelevant.

The “thin” definition, however, would allow the Burmese government to argue that the rule of law exists even if democracy and individual rights do not, which is clearly problematic.

The former chief justice of South Africa, Arthur Chaskalson, had a persuasive response to those who argue for a strictly “thin” definition.

He pointed out that the apartheid government was accountable in accordance with laws that were clear, publicized, and stable, and were upheld by law enforcement officials and judges. But the process by which the laws were made in South Africa under apartheid was not fair because only whites, a minority of the population, had the right to vote, and the laws themselves were not fair because they institutionalized discrimination, vested broad discretionary powers in the executive and failed to protect fundamental rights.

Without a substantive content, Chaskalson said, there is no answer to the criticism that the rule of law is “an empty vessel into which any law could be poured.”

Even the US could be used as an example of what happens when a definition that is too “thin” is adhered to.

Before the Bill of Rights was adopted, could it really be said that the US had the rule of law?

In any event, even if certain fundamental rights are not technically within the definition of the “rule of law,” they are still factors worth striving for, and so measurement of them should go hand in hand with measurement of the rule of law and should not be dismissed on a legal technicality.

It remains important, however, to understand the competing concepts of the rule of law, because if members of Burma’s political opposition fail to understand the debate, they risk being manipulated by those with personal vested interests on one side or the other.

The WJP has endeavored to strike a fair and measurable balance between the two definitions, and has fleshed out the components and meaning of the rule of law in an index that any opposition politician or activist in Burma would be well-served to become familiar with.

The Rule of Law Index developed by the WJP is based on four universal principles that incorporate ten different dimensions of the rule of law, all of which will be critical to Burma’s political, legal and economic development.

The WJP’s first universal principle is that a government and its officials are accountable under the law.

This means that government officials are subject to the law the same as any citizen, their powers are limited by laws, checks and balances, an independent judiciary and the freedom of the press, and they are punished for misconduct.

It also means that the government is not corrupt—i.e. that government officials exercise their functions without improper influence and do not request or receive bribes or misappropriate public funds or other resources.

The WJP’s second universal principal is that the laws are clear, publicized, stable, and fair, and protect fundamental rights, including the security of persons and property.

If the factors making up this second principal are in place, the general public knows what the law is and what conduct is permitted and prohibited.

In addition, if the rule of law is in place and enforced, then the general public does not fear for their safety or their property. Crime is under control and people do not resort to violence to redress personal grievances.

Finally, the second universal principle says that the fundamental rights of equal treatment and non-discrimination under the law are guaranteed and applied, as well as the right to due process of law, freedom of opinion and expression, freedom of assembly and association, fundamental labor rights and other similar rights that bear an essential relationship to the rule of law.

The principle does not include, however, all of the social, economic, and cultural rights that could be found, for example, in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This does not mean these rights are unimportant, just that they should not be included in measuring progress towards the rule of law.

The third WJP principle is that the process by which the laws are enacted, administered and enforced is accessible, fair and efficient.

This means that government proceedings are open to the public and official information is reasonably available. It also means that regulations are effectively enforced and applied fairly, equally and without improper influence, and that the government does not expropriate private property without adequate compensation.

This principle does not address, however, the question of whether the laws are enacted by democratically elected representatives, and therefore implies that countries without Western-style democracies can still have the rule of law.

Access to government must still be present, however, and the indications of whether this is the case include whether lawmaking proceedings are held with timely notice and are open to the public; whether the lawmaking process provides an opportunity for diverse viewpoints to be considered; and whether records of legislative and administrative proceedings and judicial decisions are available to the public.

Fairness in the administration of the law includes the absence of improper influence by public officials or private interests, the adherence to due process of law in administrative procedures and the absence of government takings of private property without adequate compensation.

The fourth and final WJP principle is that access to justice is provided by competent, independent and ethical judges and attorneys who are of sufficient number, have adequate resources and reflect the makeup of the communities they serve.

This means that the general public is aware of available remedies and can access and afford legal counsel in civil disputes. It also means that civil justice is impartial, free of improper influence and unreasonable delays, and is effectively enforced.

With respect to the criminal justice system, it means that the system of adjudication is timely, effective, impartial and free from outside influence.

In other words, the due process of law and rights of the accused are effectively protected.

The WJP Rule of Law Index provides a series of benchmarks for measuring a government’s progress towards the rule of law. While its 2011 Rule of Law Index assessed 66 countries, the WJP has never measured Burma.

The World Bank, however, includes the rule of law in its World Governance Indicators project that assesses the quality of good governance in 213 countries, and has rated Burma in the bottom 5 percent of those countries with respect to the rule of law in every year since 2002.

Even without any outside reports, the clear reality to any Burmese citizen or Burma observer is that the country does not presently have anything approaching the rule of law, and the Burmese government would abjectly fail almost every aspect of an assessment using the WJP’s universal rule of law principles and their components.

Blame for this could easily be assessed, and would no doubt lie with many of those currently in charge of Burma’s government. But although justice may require an assessment of blame, it is not necessary for the purpose of determining where Burma stands today, what reforms are needed and how much progress the government is making in the future.

As the WJP points out, no country is perfect when it comes to the rule of law, and what is an acceptable outcome for Burma depends on circumstances and cultural factors that its citizens have the right to determine.

Under any definition, however, it is clear that Burma is starting from scratch when it comes to the rule of law, and that practices and habits that are deeply embedded in the
government, the military and even the society will have to change if anything approaching the rule of law is to be achieved.

This will be a long and arduous process, but it should begin with as much of a shared understanding as possible among the Burmese people as to what the ultimate goal is and what the benchmarks along the way will be.

For this to happen, Suu Kyi and her opposition colleagues need to educate the public about what exactly they mean when calling for the rule of law in Burma.

Therefore, while effective politics must be concise and not get bogged down in academic nuances, it would be a good idea for Burma’s opposition leaders to add a few more details to their stump speeches.

For example, Suu Kyi could explain to her supporters that that her call for the rule of law means that :

Government officials are accountable to the people, subject to the same laws as everyone else and not corrupt.

Everyone is treated equally under the law, is given due process of law and is protected by the law.

The people’s freedoms of expression, assembly and belief are protected.

All laws are clear, public and prospective, and every person has access to the justice system.

The judiciary is independent and free from outside influence.

All laws are enacted in a transparent process that every citizen can witness and participate in.

If Suu Kyi fleshes out the rule of law with basic statements such as these and repeats them often enough so that everyone understands what she means by the term, she will have developed a platform for progress rather just a slogan for political victory.

In addition, she will put those in power on clear notice of what the opposition expects from them. Making specific proposals shines a spotlight on the ruling powers, because every proposal that is rejected can be framed as a rejection of the rule of law in Burma’s quest for democracy.

In that respect, if President Thein Sein really wants reform, then he would be well-advised to actually invite the WJP into Burma to perform an independent assessment. This would not only demonstrate his commitment to rule of law, but give his government an objective understanding of where Burma stands today.

Although many factors will determine how fast the country can progress towards the rule of law, if power players can be convinced it is in their own best interest, rule of law reforms will move faster. As a result, it may ultimately be the demands of potential investors that spur rule of law reform efforts in Burma.

Care should be taken, however, to ensure that rule of law reforms happen across the board and protect the rights of all citizens, not just the economic rights of the powerful, the elite and the foreign investment community.

It must be also stressed that while democracy is not necessarily a component of the rule of law, it is one of the best ways of ensuring that the rule of law exists. In addition, while it may be possible to have the rule of law without true democracy, Burma cannot have a true democracy without the rule of law.

So if Burmese leaders want to be taken seriously when they say they are on the path to democracy, they must simultaneously be on the path to establishing the rule of law.

Stephen Bloom graduated from Georgetown University Law School in Washington D.C. and previously practiced law in the US for more than 10 years.
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Property Prices Rocket by Dawei Deep-Sea Port
By THE IRRAWADDY Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Property and land prices in Dawei, also known as Tavoy, in southernmost Burma have sky-rocketing to hundreds of millions of kyat due to the development of the nearby Thai-backed deep-sea port project, claim local businessmen.

Real estate prices are highest around Ar Zar Ni Road, in downtown Dawei, where most private banks have opened branch offices. A businessman in Dawei said, “The prices go up because more commercial companies want to open branch offices and hotels in Dawei.”

According to local people, even land measuring just 40 by 60 feet can costs 200-300 million kyat. And despite the sky-rocketing prices, businesspeople have been clamoring to acquire land and property. Max Myanmar Company reportedly just purchased real estate in downtown Dawei for hundreds of millions of kyat.

Prices increased when the deep-sea port project began as speculators tried to make a quick profit, but these later came down and stablised.

“Then after Vice-President Tin Aung Myint Oo’s visit, prices went up again,” said a Dawei resident.

Tin Aung Myint Oo visited the Dawei project last month to oversee proposed renovations to the airport and continued construction work.

A property agent from Dawei said that land near the airport is also interesting buyers. He added that there will be more high prices in Dawei because of plans to expand the airport and deep-sea port.

The Italian-Thai Development Company originally invested in the Dawei deep-sea port project and now Japan and other Asian countries are conducting studies to determine whether to get onboard.

More than a thousand engineers and labors from Thailand and Burma are also working on road construction projects.

The Dawei deep-sea port project has courted controversy with campaigners worried about the adverse affect to the environment and forced relocation of local villages.

Some 4,000 megawatts of electrical power is required to run the industrial zone, which includes a coal facility that experts say will severely impact the livelihoods of local people.

The Burmese and Thai governments signed a contract in May 2008 to begin construction on the Technical Zone in Dawei deep-sea port.

The project is eight times bigger than the Map Ta Phut Industrial Zone in Rayong, Thailand, according to the Foundation for Ecological Recovery.

Map Ta Phut is estimated to have cost some 370 billion baht (US $10.5 billion) while the Dawei project is estimated at around 303 billion baht ($8.6 billion).
Dawei would become Burma's first Special Economic Zone, which includes plans to develop a 250 square-kilometre industrial estate with sea and land links to Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, as well as a gas pipeline to Thailand through Kanchanaburi Province.
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The Irrawaddy - NMSP, Govt Reach Five-point Agreement
By LAWI WENG / THE IRRAWADDY Wednesday, February 1, 2012

The New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Burmese government reached a tentative five-point agreement on Wednesday following a second round of peace talks held in Moulmein, the capital of Mon State, according to Mon sources.

Nai Soe Myit, one of the NMSP representatives who took part in the talks, told The Irrawaddy that the two sides agreed to stop fighting; to hold political talks at the Union government level; to open liaison offices; not to allow weapons to be held in certain restricted areas; and to base troops only at agreed-upon locations.

The NMSP leaders did not sign the agreement on Wednesday, but will present it at a Central Committee meeting to be held next week. If approved, the agreement could be signed in the third week of February.

The Mon delegation, led by NMSP Vice-Chairman Nai Rot Sa, included seven senior party members, four Mon community leaders and three Mon Buddhist monks.

At the meeting, the government's chief negotiator, Railways Minister Aung Min, also agreed to a request from the Mon delegation to allow the Mon language to be used in schools and to release two Mon political prisoners, Min Nay Win (aka Nai Yekha) and Min Myo Thwe, who are currently serving life sentences.

“Aung Min told us that his government will release Mon political prisoners when the NMSP becomes a legal party,” said Nai Soe Myit.

The Mon leaders said that the decision to allow students in predominantly Mon areas to use their native language in public schools was also mentioned by Ohn Myint, the chief minister of Mon State, during dinner on Tuesday evening.

Regarding future political discussions, the NMSP repeated its calls for a nationwide ceasefire that includes all ethnic armed groups, and said it wants talks on political issues to take place within 45 days, with the participation of outside observers.

After the first phase of bilateral talks, the NMSP wants to take part in multilateral negotiations that include other ethnic political parties and the opposition National League for Democracy, the Mon leaders said.

Nai Soe Myit said that the agreement reached on Wednesday was unlike the one the NMSP signed in 1995 with former military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt because this time,
political talks were on the table.

Also an the agenda was economic development. Aung Min told the Mon leaders that they should open an economic zone in Three Pagodas Pass, in NMSP-controlled territory on the Thai-Burmese border, and invite Thai companies, according to sources.

The NMSP held its first peace talks with Aung Min on Dec. 22 in the Thai border town of Sangkhlaburi, near Three Pagodas Pass.
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Quintana to visit Karen and Mon states
Wednesday, 01 February 2012 15:04 Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – The United Nations human rights envoy to Burma will visit Hpaan in Karen State and Mawlamyine in Mon State to assess the plight of Burmese ethnic groups.

Tomas Ojea Quintana, who arrived on Wednesday, will also meet with the speakers of the two houses of Parliament and a number of ministers including those of foreign affairs, defense, border affairs, home affairs and information.

During his last trip to Burma in August 2011, he welcomed the government's reform efforts and acknowledged steps in improving its human rights situation.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon praised the government’s democratic reforms so far and said he planned to Burma the country soon to have further discussions with the authorities.

“I am very pleased and encouraged by what the current Myanmar authorities led by President Thein Sein have been doing, including the releasing of political prisoners,” Ban said in New York.
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Burma joins naval exercises
Wednesday, 01 February 2012 12:18 Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – The Burmese navy took part in a joint exercise organized by the Indian Navy off the strategic Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal, local media reported on Tuesday.

Warships and delegations from 14 countries of the Asia-Pacific region will participate in the “Milan” exercise, which will focus on countering maritime terrorism, piracy and poaching as well as search and rescue operations and capacity building, the Times of India quoted officials as saying.

Navy ships from Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, the Philippines, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Maldives, the Seychelles and Mauritius took part in the exercise.

One naval concern in the region is the protection of sea-lanes through the Malacca Strait. An estimated 60,000 ships sail through it every year, carrying around 30 percent of the world trade in goods.

An Indian officer said: “India’s central location in the Indian Ocean, astride these major commercial routes and energy lifelines, makes us a major stakeholder in the region's security and stability.”
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Suu Kyi on poverty tour in Magway region
Wednesday, 01 February 2012 18:32 Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – Aung San Suu Kyi observed poverty alleviation programs on Tuesday in Myaing Township in the Magway Region.

Her visit included British and Australian diplomats who accompanied her to Paypintike and Kyittee villages to observe programs in education, agriculture, health and business.

“The British government has launched international development funds, and some of them have been allocated to fight poverty,” said security official Khun Thar Myint who accompanied Suu Kyi.

The Department for International Development [DFID], a United Kingdom governmental department, has earmarked 300 million pounds for Burma from 2012 to 2015 to aid in poverty alleviation, to be delivered through UN organizations, international and local NGOs and social organizations.

During the trip, Suu Kyi observed small-scale sewing enterprises, a bakery and agricultural projects, all intended to employ and empower villagers.

In reply to Suu Kyi’s questions, villagers talked about the need for more water for agricultural and other needs. Suu Kyi said she would help the villagers to overcome those difficulties and urged them to venture out and try to do more.

Suu Kyi did not inform the public in advance about her visit, officials said, because the trip had nothing to do with politics and canvassing. However, very large groups of supporters turned out along the Bagan-NyaungU-Pakokku-Myaing route, according to reporters who accompanied Suu Kyi’s trip.

“During her round trip, there were many supporters, especially in Pakokku. The ides of the roads were very crowded with supporters, and drivers could not drive fast. Our cars took more than three hours for a one-hour trip. Many people welcomed her. They welcomed her with various styles. In Myaing, people welcomed her by banging Burmese drums,” a reporter who accompanied her told Mizzima.

A woman told Mizzima, “I’m over 20. In the past, I have seen her only in photos. Now, I have seen her in the real world. She’s too much prettier than in her photos. When I approached her to give flowers, there was a big crowd, so I had to shove to get to her.”
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DVB News - Burmese warships join Indian naval drill
By FRANCIS WADE
Published: 1 February 2012

Burma is among 14 countries to take part in a joint naval exercise with India today in the Bay of Bengal, with the show of force likely to trigger concern in China that its close ally to the south is being drawn further into New Delhi’s orbit.

The five-day naval drill, known as the Milan exercise, is focused on joint efforts at combating piracy and terrorism in the strategically key waters off eastern India. Burma’s maritime territory also extends into the Bay of Bengal.

The Times of India said that of particular concern to regional countries is the stability of the Malacca Straits beneath Singapore, through which up to 60,000 vessels pass each year transporting cargo to and from Asia-Pacific economies. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands, around which this week’s exercises will take place, act as a gateway to the strait.

That choke-point is also a key route for Middle Eastern and African oil bound for China, which has already signalled concern about US warships that patrol beneath Singapore, and the potential for it to be cut off.

The sight of warships that belong to countries like India and Vietnam, whose relations with China are strained, carrying out joint drills in the Bay of Bengal is sure to unnerve Beijing, which has sought to develop an alternative to the Malacca
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